28 aug. 2017 - Ferguson explained that the optimal bet to make in an NFL market is a teaser which takes a team across the 3 and the 7. ... I do not often recommend using the Kelly Criterion as a staking method in sports betting because the average bettor is not consistent enough in pricing games to use Kelly responsibly. The Kelly Criterion Staking Method Explained. By stars on January 4, 2017. The Kelly Criterion Staking Method Explained. How much should you bet when the odds are in your favour and you've found what you perceive to be value? That's exactly where the Kelly Criterion method of staking or bankroll management comes. 1. What Is The Kelly Staking Strategy? 2. What Are The Issues With The Kelly Criterion? 3. How To Calculate The Kelly Criterion? 4. What's The Kelly Staking Formula? 5. Fractional Kelly Staking Calculator 6. Kelly Criterion Excel Spreadsheet 7. Kelly Staking Football Excel Spreadsheet 8. How To Make Your Own Kelly. A couple of points for consideration when using the formula. Please try with another. The image you are trying to upload is too heavy. Because the four games are independent, the probability of each outcome can be calculated as the product of the probabilities Starquest Slots - Play for Free in Your Web Browser each game; for example, the first row probability would be calculated as:. With this information, we can then use the Kelly Criterion to calculate the stake, by working out the following simple formula:. It can lead to the bettor using significant fractions of their betting bank. What is the Kelly Criterion? Note that this is identical to the result in Example 1A, where the simplified version of the Kelly Criterion does work. Additional uses from the generalised Kelly Criterion We have already seen how this generalised Kelly Criterion can produce completely different results than the simplified Kelly formula that most bettors will use when there are multiple edges in the same game. Another drawback is that the percentage result from the Criterion is often a significant proportion of your bank balance, meaning that large stakes may be required. In Example 3 above, the certainty equivalent is exp 7. The Kelly Criterion formula is: If you would like to make your own contribution, contact us on Twitter or email us. Probability multiplied by odds — 1 divided by odds — 1 multiplied by your chosen fraction. Many people firmly believe that the strategy is extremely useful for calculating the optimal stakes to place, while others believe it serves very little purpose at all. This is because the main purpose of the Kelly Criterion as a betting strategy is to make sure that you stake higher amounts when placing wagers with a higher probability of winning and lower amounts when placing wagers that have a lower probability of winning. Using the Tottenham example above, betting on Spurs to win at evens decimal odds of 2. What this particular strategy does that most other staking plans don't, however, is the application of the theoretical value of wagers. He has written an interesting book The House Advantage , which examines what he learned about managing risk from playing blackjack. What is the Kelly Criterion?